Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 80659.088983 85142.005450 89621.819510 94431.210536 99444.988224 104514.458490 110024.362643
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 73330.973509 80194.820850 87243.971630 95014.347143 103329.037821 111949.084830 121550.849290
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 67743.757834 76204.467807 85083.758476 95076.089916 105986.386199 117515.940221 130599.382682
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 64246.967951 73987.314692 84394.352548 96306.233800 109527.393707 123715.908332 140057.238055
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 60391.737681 71031.401901 82583.141204 96005.887394 111120.739417 127561.556096 146742.414201
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 58251.191032 69793.184629 82501.306150 97461.739721 114518.883554 133287.411246 155424.994193
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 56065.247364 68341.418080 82034.618333 98349.858907 117164.792207 138085.929618 163008.593627
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 53633.393310 66462.993578 80951.741278 98412.746908 118766.181207 141621.696457 169101.755863
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 51317.881677 64600.757678 79778.962148 98269.009321 120040.454218 144714.254398 174637.200047
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 50269.831712 64173.150965 80227.167884 99971.109634 123425.981166 150222.433913 182964.469961
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 49297.050562 63775.897672 80661.219434 101615.214911 126716.153961 155610.373391 191164.024984
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 47888.348288 62783.522007 80326.851217 102292.384524 128822.596941 159589.392664 197708.053160
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 46119.889631 61311.381209 79388.777394 102233.170185 130060.349760 162578.170452 203150.652642
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 44706.072680 60229.504806 78884.583525 102667.315938 131871.777047 166245.531272 209418.412246
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 43178.305717 58947.298831 78083.245040 102691.746424 133150.347694 169253.704579 214892.672335
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 42365.414045 58535.931714 78332.814691 103990.852865 135974.483273 174124.701550 222629.068331
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 40836.227805 57152.727653 77317.154166 103669.446506 136766.126453 176506.964197 227340.117428
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 40257.395761 56974.152138 77802.099646 105216.999640 139871.002913 181718.904183 235524.186894
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 39441.350996 56454.094935 77826.208607 106161.092901 142210.888326 185992.877409 242575.919095
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 38281.746037 55442.459132 77185.511946 106227.925470 143425.307657 188865.813621 247903.165918
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 37085.320855 54344.079689 76398.316864 106075.116062 144336.636687 191347.106327 252741.986220
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 36774.641416 54421.896380 77133.723883 107884.411007 147748.384641 196962.009894 261510.420117
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 36455.761620 54473.629720 77824.684973 109631.705924 151085.644066 202499.782571 270215.137604